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US-VOTE-POLITICS-ECONOMY-BIDEN

Bonnie Jo Mount

I’m stressed about my 401(k) retirement plan and what a protracted legal battle over <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/27/experts-guide-election-day-2020/?arc404=true" target=_blank>the next U.S. president </a>may do to the stock market.

I’m not supposed to admit this. I should know better. But the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/30/stock-markets-today-coronavirus/" target=_blank>volatility</a> of the stock market can take you there: a place of panic.

However, when your emotions will probably drive you to make a misguided financial decision, it helps to get an outside perspective.

“People may remember that the market tumbled in the immediate wake of President Trump’s election, but then <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/09/a-quiet-open-on-wall-street-after-trump-victory-put-global-investors-on-edge/" target=_blank>recovered</a> and went on to perform quite well,” said Christine Benz, director of personal finance for <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/authors/30/christine-benz" target=_blank>Morningstar</a>. “Investors were rewarded for sitting tight and not selling. We saw the same phenomenon earlier this year, when the magnitude of the pandemic came into view. Investors who sat tight through what was a very uncomfortable period in February and March were rewarded. Those who sold themselves out in the heat of the moment locked in their losses. We see this again and again. Patience and inertia in the face of volatility are invariably rewarded.”

I asked several financial experts questions about how the election may affect your retirement savings. Here’s what they had to say.

Q: Isn’t it possible the markets will go down if the election isn’t clearly decided?

“The market is indeed likely to be rattled both by delays validating a winner of the presidential election and in eliminating the pandemic scourge,” said Ric Edelman, founder of <a href="https://www.edelmanfinancialengines.com/">Edelman Financial Engines</a>. “Uncertainty about the impact on the economy could lead to the kind of market turmoil that we’ve seen since Labor Day.”

Edelman said rather than just panic, now’s the time for investors to evaluate their investment strategy.

“First, make sure you have plenty in cash reserves,” he said. “This way, if you need cash, you don’t have to sell any of your investments while they might be down in value. Second, if volatile markets scare you, consider reducing the amount of money you have in stocks and stock funds. That way, you reduce your investment risks, which can help you sleep easier during difficult times.”

Catch up on the biggest developments in the pandemic at the end of the day with our free coronavirus newsletter

Q: What is your advice if the election leads to a heated court battle that continues to affect the stock market?

“On the planning side, maybe you want to be able to look at a drop in markets as a buying opportunity,” Dan Egan, managing director of behavioral finance at Betterment, said in an interview. “Make it an opportunity rather than a risk or something that you’re really worried about.”

And things may not be so crazy even if there isn’t a clear winner after Election Day, Egan said, pointing to 2016, when betting markets gave Trump just a 20 percent chance of winning. The day after the election, the market opened flat.

“It’s unlikely that the election results will drive unusual levels of volatility,” Egan wrote in a <a href="https://www.betterment.com/resources/2020-election-headache/" target=_blank>post for Betterment</a> about how to avoid an election headache.

Q: Should I just sell and wait for the stock market to stabilize after a winner has been declared?

“Everyone is saying that this election will come down to Florida, Florida, Florida,” Benz said. “The key thing to remember if you have stocks and they head down, no matter what’s going on in the world, is time horizon, time horizon, time horizon. If you have a very short time frame until you’ll need to spend your money, whether to buy a house or make a tuition payment, that money shouldn’t be in stocks. The market is just too volatile in the short run. You shouldn’t risk it.”

Benz said many investors have been letting their stock holdings ride for many years, and their portfolios are the better for it. But if you’re close to retirement, you may want to consider taking some money off the table in stocks to safeguard the money you’ll need in the early years of retirement.

“On the other hand, if you have a time horizon of at least 10 years until you’ll need your money, you should be in stocks,” she said. “You need the growth potential, and stocks have been positive more than 90 percent of the time in various 10-year periods throughout market history. Because you’re not spending right away, you should be able to put up with the periodic bouts of volatility that the market faces, whether due to uncertain election results, a pandemic or a financial crisis.”

Q: Should I just put my money in a savings account to avoid the roller-coaster ride of the stock market?

Don’t let the daily seesaw of the markets dictate your investment moves, said Carolyn McClanahan, a certified financial planner who founded the fee-only Life Planning Partners based in Jacksonville, Fla.

Like other experts, McClanahan said it’s important to make sure you have an emergency fund or funds available that aren’t aggressively invested if you need it in the short term.

“If you need cash for the next three to five years, then you need to take that money out of the market,” McClanahan said. “And if the market goes up, you’re going to kick yourself. If it goes down, you’re going to be happy. There’s no way to predict.”

In a newsletter to clients, McClanahan’s firm noted that this year, the S&amp;P 500 plunged 35 percent and then rebounded 60 percent.

The important thing is to have an investment plan and stick with that strategy, so the gyrations of the stock market don’t result in making changes based on your emotions. “Stick to what you need for you so that all the noise gets excluded,” she said.

Q: Why should I stick with stocks when the market is so volatile?

“Putting up with short-term volatility can be mentally taxing, but it’s the cost of doing business if you want a shot at earning a higher return over time,” Benz said. “If the market falls and you have a long time horizon, try not to peek at your portfolio. Take a walk, bake some bread, find a good book. But do not peek.”

Q: How do I cope with all this uncertainty of the election when it comes to my retirement investing?

“One other thing I recommend to everybody: Do not stay up late on election night,” Egan said. “I know it seems like a thing to do, but what we generally see is that people make worse decisions when they are sleep-deprived.”

Q: What can I learn from the previous performance of the stock market after an election?

“The big lesson is not to allow your political views to influence your investment strategy,” Edelman said. “If your candidate wins, you become happy and optimistic, and that can cause you to increase your exposure to stocks. If your candidate loses, you become unhappy and pessimistic, and that can cause you to reduce your exposure to stocks. Optimists take too much risk, and pessimists suffer lower returns. Remember that every president is in office for a maximum of eight years, but you’ll be around for 30 or 40 years. Don’t let a short-term presidency harm your long-term financial goals.”

All of the experts agree on this one thing: Over the long term, historical returns suggest that your 401(k) is going to be okay, no matter who wins following Tuesday’s presidential election.

If you have a personal finance or retirement question, send it to <a href="mailto:colorofmoney@washpost.com">colorofmoney@washpost.com</a>. In the subject line, put “Question of the Week.” Please note that questions may be edited for clarity.

Q: My U.S.-born son lived and worked in South Korea in 2018. He filed both his 2018 and 2019 tax returns. His income showed that he was eligible for the full $1,200 stimulus payment. He moved to France in early 2020, but his stimulus check was mailed to his 2018 South Korean address. It is 99 percent certain that the letter containing the check will not be forwarded to him from South Korea to France. What should he do to get his payment?

A: Many people are in a similar position as your son. The IRS “<a href="https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment">Get My Payment</a>” tool or a letter from the IRS says their stimulus payments have been direct-deposited into their bank account or mailed. But they haven’t received the payment. Your son should trace the payment by calling 800-919-9835 or by submitting IRS <a href="https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f3911.pdf">Form 3911</a>, which, under normal circumstances, is used for an issue with a refund. Write “EIP” on the top of the form.

Here are the instructions from the IRS about tracing a missing payment. You should only request a payment trace if you received Notice 1444 or if “Get My Payment” shows your payment was issued and you have not received it within the time frames below:

— Five days since the deposit date in “Get My Payment” and the bank says it hasn’t received it.

— Four weeks since it was mailed by check.

— Six weeks since it was mailed, and you have a forwarding address on file with the local post office.

— Nine weeks since it was mailed, and you have a foreign address.

For more information on where to mail the tracing form, go to <a href="https://www.irs.gov/" target=_blank>irs.gov</a> and read question F3 on the <a href="https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/economic-impact-payment-information-center-topic-f-payment-issued-but-lost-stolen-destroyed-or-not-received" target=_blank>Economic Impact Payment Information Center page</a> under Topic F: Payment Issued but Lost, Stolen, Destroyed or Not Received.

I’m interested in your experiences or concerns about retirement or aging. You can rant or rave. Send your comments to <a href="mailto:colorofmoney@washpost.com">colorofmoney@washpost.com</a>. Please include your name, city and state. In the subject line, put “Retirement Rants and Raves.”

Gerald Loeb Award, Commentary, 2021

National Association of Black Journalist Salute to Excellence Award, Commentary, 2021

The Washington Post Eugene Meyer Award, the paper's highest journalistic honor, 2020

Distinguished Achievement Award from the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing, the organization’s highest honor, 2019

Hall of Fame for the Society of Professional Journalists Washington, D.C., Pro Chapter, 2019

Fellowship, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Wharton Seminars for Business Journalist, awarded by National Press Foundation, 2018

Salute to Excellence Award for Community Service, National Association of Black Journalists, 2010

Best in Business, series of columns, Society of American Business Editors, 2008

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University of Maryland

Johns Hopkins University

If you have a personal finance question for Washington Post columnist Michelle Singletary, please call 1-855-ASK-POST (1-855-275-7678). Her award-winning column, “The Color of Money,” is syndicated by The Washington Post News Service and Syndicate and carried in dozens of newspapers.

Michelle Singletary

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How the presidential election may affect your retirement plan

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